ZZ: 胡温这十年,中国社会取得了哪些进展?新一任领导人又将面临哪些挑战?

這是對胡溫政府相對客觀的政治評價,在2012年兩會結束各種塵埃落定的時刻,回顧一下胡溫政府10年來的政府工作業績還是很有啓發的。

到目前为止,胡温政府是共和国历史上最进步、最开明的政府。胡锦涛提出“以人为本”、“和谐社会”、“科学发展观”等施政理念,从根本上终结了“以阶级斗争为纲”的思维方式。人们看到,胡温10年没有出现乱杀人现象,是建国后唯一一个没有阶级斗争,没有严打,没有大规模严厉迫害宗教信仰者的时期,不同政见者也获得了相对宽容的待遇。温家宝则不遗余力地提倡自由、民主、人权,鼓励群众“批评政府”,公开倡导政治体制改革。他说,“没有政治体制改革,经济体制改革不可能成功,已经取得的成果也有失去的危险”,“科学、民主、法制、自由、人权,并非资本主义所独有,而是人类在漫长的历史进程中共同追求的价值观和共同创造的文明成果”。结合温家宝提出的乡镇和县级的选举、司法独立、官员财产公开、政务公开以及党内民主等思想,有学者认为温家宝已经给出了中国政治改革的“温氏路线图”。

改革开放以来,中国社会取得了很多进展,经济成就举世瞩目,但深层次的问题也进一步爆发出来。很多程度上,这是建国50年积弊的结果,难以在一夜之间革除。两位政治家在既有框架内,做了他们能做的事情,为今后中国的健康和谐发展奠定了积极因素。

一、新闻自由度逐渐放宽

胡温执政后,新闻自由度逐渐放宽。其一,中央高层对舆论监督比较容忍,负责意识形态的中共中央政治局常委李长春甚至主张大幅增加舆论监督报道的数量。从2002年到2004年,每年都有关于首都本身的重要的调查性报道。2003年记者节中央电视台推出八大“风云记者”,其中有7名是调查记者,这些都说明当时舆论监督宏观环境的宽松。从2004年起,调查性报道受到限制,时评崛起。2007年,新闻评论持续繁荣,调查性报道触底反弹。官方对“异地监督”的禁令没有取消,但已有松动迹象,一些媒体正在积极恢复调查性报道。其二,随着互联网技术日益成熟,网络监督异军突起。很多事件和案例,都是首先通过网络曝光,才得到相对公正的处理和解决。网络已经成为普通老百姓表达民意和进行舆论监督的主要渠道。

虽然中国社会目前正面临着贪污腐败、两级分化,甚至动荡的风险,但言论自由和批评的开放,为整个国家提供了革朽除弊,自我改良创造了机会,给社会的健康发展带来了希望。

二、城市化进程显著加快

胡温10年,是中国城市化发展最快的10年。根据国家统计局数据,截至2011年末,中国城市化率已经达到51.27%,较2002年的39.09%增加了12.18个百分点。与之对比的是,1949年到2002年的53年中,中国城市化率仅增加了21.66个百分点,由17.43%增加到39.09%。社科院研究员陆学艺认为:“从国际经验来看,当城镇人口的总数超过50%以后,朝向完全城市化进程迈进的步伐会更快,预计2050年这一数据会超过70%或80%以上”,同时他也指出,目前国家在社会政策、社会体制改革方面还远远跟不上城市化进程的需要。

城市化将引领中国进入新的发展阶段。城市文明是与传统文明完全不同的商业文明,城市化的发展,必将深刻改变中国的社会结构,给人们的生活方式、职业结构、消费行为以及价值观念带来深刻的变化,并对中国的未来产生深远影响。在城乡剧烈变化的时期,中国究竟是要走城市化的道路,还是城镇化道路?胡德平指出,中国应走中国特色的城镇化道路。虽然城市化有节约土地、资源利用集约效率高、迁徙更自由等特点,但在很大程度上会牺牲农民、农业和农村的利益,城市中也会出现更多的贫民区。从国际经验看,发达国家并没有走单一城市化的道路,他们走的是城镇化之路。城镇化道路符合中国的国情、民情,能更好的解决城乡居民生活、就业、住宅等问题。

三、台海与国际关系的新进展

台海关系在最近几年取得了突破性的成果。 2008年6月21日,海协会与海基会换函,台湾试点开放大陆居民赴台个人旅游;2008年11月4日,海协会与海基会在台北签署《海峡两岸空运协议》、《海峡两岸海运协议》、《海峡两岸邮政协议》,实现两岸“三通”,即海运直航、空运直航、直接通邮;2010年6月29日,大陆与台湾签署《海峡两岸经济合作框架协议》(ECFA),两岸搭建起经贸关系制度化的平台;2010年8月19日,台湾“立法院”正式通过“陆生三法”修正案,正式承认大陆学历,并开放大陆学生赴台湾高校就读。这些成果极大促进了两岸政治、经济、文化交流,增进了民间友好往来,消除敌意,大大减少了两岸发生军事冲突的机会,为两岸“和平统一”带来了希望。

胡温时代,中国外交逐渐从“韬光养晦”走向“有所作为”, 积极参与国际和地区事务,主动参与塑造国际秩序,打造大国形象。2003年6月,中国首次参加G8首脑会议,一改过去把“八国集团”看作为发达国家谋取利益的富人俱乐部的做法;8月,中国积极解决朝鲜核问题,主动在“六方会谈”中发挥积极作用;10月,中国与东盟签订《东南亚友好合作条约》,与东南亚国家发展友好关系。2009年,20国集团取代八国集团成为全球经济合作的主要论坛,中国是G20的创始国之一,发挥着重要作用。在双边关系方面:2003年7月,韩国卢武铉总统对中国进行国事访问,双方商定在21世纪建立和发展韩中全面合作伙伴关系;2005年1月,中印举行首次战略对话,4月,温家宝总理访印,两国签署《中印联合声明》,宣布建立面向和平与繁荣的战略合作伙伴关系;2006年9月,中国与美国设立“中美战略经济对话”(SED),推动两国在经贸领域的合作;2008年5月,胡锦涛到日本进行国事访问,与日本内阁总理大臣福田康夫共同签署《中日关于全面推进战略互惠关系的联合声明》;2011年6月,温家宝与蒙古国总理巴特包勒德举行会谈,双方宣布建立中蒙战略伙伴关系。中国还积极参与海外维和行动。2003年至2006年,中国向联合国驻刚果、利比里亚、黎巴嫩、苏丹特派团派出成建制维和分队,2007年11月,中国向联合国驻非盟达尔富尔混合维和任务区派出多功能工兵分队,作为联合国第一支进驻该地区的维和部队。2009年6月28日至7月3日,中国与蒙古举行代号为“和平使命—2009”的中蒙维和联合训练,这是中国首次与外军开展维和联合训练和交流活动。此外,2008年12月26日,中国首批海军舰艇编队由三亚出发,赴亚丁湾和索马里海域执行护航任务,中国开始尝试向远洋投送军事力量。

四、为市场经济制度奠定法律基础

市场经济必须在一定的规则上才能健康运行,如平等的市场主体、限制个人或政府对产权的侵害和掠夺、防止垄断、企业破产规则等等。胡温执政期间,连续通过了保障市场经济健康运行的三部核心法律:2006年8月,十届全国人大常委会第二十三次会议通过《企业破产法》;2007年3月,十届全国人大第五次会议通过《物权法》;2007年8月,十届全国人大常委会第二十九次会议通过《反垄断法》。

《物权法》的重大意义还在于,突破了固有意识形态的限制,确认了国家、集体、私人财产平等保护的原则,为培育平等竞争的自由市场竞争体制奠定了基础。《物权法》不仅保护了私产,对公有和集体财产的保护同样有利。在公有财产享有特殊地位的时候,资产产权并不清晰,掠夺和流失经常发生。《物权法》为保护公有财产、制裁侵犯公有财产的行为奠定了法律依据。

五、基层民主实践

胡温执政期间,基层民主实践日益规范和深化。主要成就是:基层自治方面,2010年修订《村民委员会组织法》,2011年启动《城市居民委员会组织法》修订工作;社会管理方面,2003年颁布《物业管理条例》(2007年8月修订),2007年颁布《物权法》,2009年住建部颁布《业主大会和业主委员会指导规则》,这些法律法规初步构建了“业主委员会自治”(小区自治)的框架。

基层自治源自上个世纪70年代末80年代初的政治体制改革,包括农村村民自治和城市社区居民自治。基层民主自治是一项具有深远意义的制度变革。从1988年开始,中国农民可以直接选举村委会领导。这是几千年来中国从没有出现过的,一度吸引了学界和国际社会的关注。欧洲、韩国、台湾等国家和地区热心人士提供了大量的资金,甚至派专人到中国为农村选举提供帮助,美国的卡特中心则启动先相关研究项目为中国农村选举提供指导。针对村民自治实践中出现的一些问题,2010年新修订的《村委会组织法》明确了罢免程序、完善了村民民主议事制度、进一步规范民主管理和民主监督。城市社区居委会自治在中国发展的并不平衡,一些城市社区自治非常活跃,能够体现自治和民主的原则,另一些地方的社区居委会尚未真正发挥自治的功能。

“业主委员会自治”是中国基层民主实践的新形式。计划经济条件下,实行单位分房,同一个单位的人基本上住在一个小区里面,人们生活中的各种纠纷和矛盾也主要由单位来协调。随着市场经济和房地产制度的变革,不同单位甚至不同行业的人生活在一起,单位小区变成了住宅小区。这必然意味着社会组织和管理方式的深刻变革。2003年6月国务院颁布《物业管理条例》(2007年8月修订),住建部下发《业主大会规程》,2007年3月全国人大通过《物权法》,2009年12月住建部下发《业主大会指导规则》,同时废止《业主大会规程》,初步建立起业主自治的架构。

“业主自治”也许比基层自治更能推动中国的民主转型。首先,业主自治是市民社会的基础,“市民社会决定国家政治”,市民社会的成长和壮大是公民社会的前提,从历史现实看,西方民主就是由业主自治发展而来。其次,小区居民是市民社会中典型的陌生人关系,没有宗法血缘关系的桎梏,比农村村民自治具有更多的民主条件。最后,业主自治保障的是居民基本的物质和生活利益,不牵涉政治纷争,不受资本的直接操控,能够有效地培育人们的民主意识,锻炼人们的民主参与能力,养成民主的生活方式。业主自治的健康发展必然会产生一系列的效果,如推动社区居民自治的真正实现,改变基层人大代表不代表人民的状况,继而推动各级人大代表实行真正的民主选举。

六、传统文化逐渐恢复,文化多元化初现端倪

胡温执政期间,传统文化逐渐得到恢复。胡锦涛公开提出,“弘扬中华传统文化,建设中华民族共有的精神家园”。在治国理念方面,“八荣八耻”、“和谐社会”、“小康社会”、“以德治国”等政治口号直接就从传统文化的概念中汲取养分。胡温政府对不同思想流派也采取了较为宽容的态度,已经出现了自由主义右派、新左派、保守主义儒家等思想派别,各种文化思潮争鸣的局面初现端倪。

胡温新政从根本上改变了过去意识形态上“以马列为纲”的局面,为文化上的“百家争鸣”奠定了基础。文化上的变化具有深远的政治意义。随着中国经济实力的崛起,中国的影响和势力必然向外扩张。对外扩张和输出什么,才是问题的关键。人们已经看到,中国的崛起引起了周边国家的紧张和警觉,美国加强了对中国的围堵。难道美国和周边周家成心与中国为敌吗?以“阶级斗争论”、“革命论”为特征的第三国际的共产主义运动并没有给世界带来和平和安宁,而是暴力、血腥和死亡。红色苏联不仅军事入侵匈牙利、捷克斯洛伐克、阿富汗,还在国内迫害和屠杀了数千万人口;柬埔寨红色高棉政权屠杀了全国1/3的人口;中国则爆发了文化大革命,错误的社会政策还导致史无前例大饥荒,造成3700万人非正常死亡。所有这些都给世界一种印象,红色势力传播的历史,就是血流成河的历史。难道中国崛起之后,就是要向外输出这些东西吗?反观以美国为代表的西方国家,以自由、民主、人权、宪政为主要的文化和政治理念,给世界带来了秩序和安宁。美国已经成为全世界人民的人心所向,甚至重庆市副市长都知道“有事情就找美领馆”,他知道在那里有公正。胡温政府的文化政策表明,他们已经深刻意识到只有文化的进步,才能赋予中国崛起以合法性和正当性,也才能使中华民族真正复兴和崛起。

七、人权的进步

1998年10月5日,中国政府在联合国总部签署了《公民权利和政治权利国际公约》,只待全国人大批准以便在国内产生完全的法律效力。2004年1月,胡锦涛在法国议会大厅发表演讲,承诺一旦条件成熟,中国政府将向全国人大提请批准联合国《公民权利和政治权利国际公约》。温家宝在2008年两会期间表示,中国正在努力解决国内法与国际法的衔接问题,以期尽快批准该条约。但直到今天,国务院也未提出报告,当然全国人民代表大会也就无法批准该公约。不过,中国政府还是通过一系列的立法工作,逐步接近和达到该公约的某些要求,使中国在人权方面取得了一些积极的成果。这也显示中国正在为自己真正融入国际社会做积极的努力。

1,城乡居民获得平等选举权

平等的选举权包括两层含义,其一,平等的投票权,即“一人一票”,其二,每一票具有相等的价值,即“票权相等”。建国后,中国农村居民的选举权与城市居民的选举权并不平等。1953年第一部选举法规定,城乡人大代表可以代表不同的选民人数。如同样选举一位全国人大代表,农村选民人数需要比城市选民人数多8倍。1995年新修订的选举法,将国家和省两级人大代表中农村与城市每一代表所代表的人口数的比例,从原来的8比1、5比1,统一改为4比1。这可以看作是一种进步。

2010年3月,十一届全国人大三次会议通过《选举法修正案》,规定:一步到位实行城乡按相同人口比例选举人大代表。这标志着农村居民获得了与城市居民相同的选举权。中国人距离“人人平等”和“人民当家作主”的民主理想近了一步。

2,自由迁徙权逐步实现

随着市场经济和城市化的发展,中国居民正逐渐获得自由迁徙权。当前中国社会的一大特征就是大批农村居民向城市迁徙,这些新增城市人口中的大多数人由于受户籍限制,无法享受到普通城市人口的同等待遇,被歧视性地称作农民工、城市流动人员。胡温执政期间,通过住房和就业市场化、居住证制度、购房入户政策、社保制度改革等一系列的政策,逐渐弱化户籍的作用,为实现和履行联合国《公民权利和政治权利国际公约》所规定的自由迁徙权积极努力。

3,废止收容遣送制度

收容遣送制度在中国有很长的历史。为巩固新政权,中国于1951年实施收容遣送制度,旨在通过对国民党散兵游勇、妓女、社会无业游民进行劳动改造,使其转化为从业人员加以安置。大饥荒期间,收容和遣返对象扩大到外流灾民、城市乞讨和流浪人员,90年代初,收容和遣返对象又进一步扩大到城市“三无人员”,即无合法证件、无固定住所、无稳定收入的人员。收容遣送制度不仅威胁了农民工群体、城市上访人员、流动和无业人员的生命安全和正当权益,也违反了宪法所规定的公民人身自由权,更违反了联合国《公民权利和政治权利国际公约》。《公民权利和政治权利国际公约》规定:“除非依照法律所规定的根据和程序,任何人不得被剥夺自由”、“在一国领土内合法居留之人,在该国领土内有迁徙往来之自由及择居之自由”。

2003年孙志刚案发生后,许多媒体加以详细报道,人们对收容遣送制度的反思和抨击达到顶点。2003年6月20日,国务院总理温家宝签署国务院令,颁布《城市生活无着的流浪乞讨人员救助管理办法》,废止《城市流浪乞讨人员收容遣送办法》。从此,以“自愿救助,无偿救助”为原则的救助制度代替了原来的强制收容和遣送制度。

4,中国老百姓重获财产权

中国人在1949年以后逐渐失去了财产权,甚至生活资料的所有权也被限制在一个狭小的范围内。1958-1962年大饥荒期间,甚至农民家中悄悄藏匿的几粒救命粮都被暴力清缴充公,结果导致数千万中国人的非正常死亡。财产权是一项基本人权,一旦丧失财产权,不仅人的尊严和人格无法保障,生命也会受到威胁。为了生存,民众只能仰人鼻息、看当官的脸色行事,学会乖乖地做奴才,奴性思维就是这样培养出来的。

胡温政府上台后,表现出了维护公民权利的决心。2003年10月,中共十六届三中全会通过《中共中央关于修改宪法部分内容的建议》,2004年全国人大通过宪法修正案,把原宪法第十三条“国家保护公民的合法收入、储蓄、房屋和其他合法财产的所有权”,修改为“公民的合法的私有财产不受侵犯”。“私产入宪”是共和国历史上具有标志意义的事件。2007年3月,全国人大又通过《物权法》,进一步对公民财产权做出了规定。

新一任领导人面临的挑战

胡温政府在社会、经济、文化各方面取得了显著的进展,采取的却是“无为而治”的政策。老子说过,“道常无为而无不为,侯王若能守之,万物将自化”。中国以往的历任领导人却都把自己的工作搞得轰轰烈烈。毛泽东开展了一个接一个的运动,包括土改、爱国捐献、人民公社化、公私合营、整风和反右、大跃进、四清、农业学大寨、上山下乡、批林整风运动、文化大革命……,华国锋开展了揭批“四人帮”运动,邓小平开展了反对资产阶级自由化运动、“严打”运动……运动中,社会正常的生产、生活秩序被打破,一些人被十分凄惨地打入地狱。人们发现,运动搞得最少的时代,正是中国社会相对健康发展的阶段。经历战争和凋敝以后,社会最急需的是休养生息,恢复生机和活力,中国在建国后经历的却是一连串的折腾。很多人抱怨胡温政府没做什么事情,他们看不到统治者不侵扰社会,让社会恢复自我治理机制是一个十分必要的过程。以“无为而治”而核心的胡温新政,必然会在历史上留下自己精彩的一笔。另一方面,随着民间社会逐渐得到恢复,一些深层次的问题也逐渐呈现出来。

1,国企垄断

国企垄断有碍自由竞争的市场经济体制,已经成为中国社会进一步发展的绊脚石。其一,国企与国家政权有亲缘关系,常借助行政,甚至立法权排挤民营资本,如国务院曾出台一些法规,限制一平方公里内加油站的数量,逼迫民营加油站以象征性的价格卖给中石油、中石化。其二,国家政策往往向国企倾斜,使国企和民营企业处于不平等竞争地位,破坏了自由的市场经济秩序,如颇受世人瞩目的吴英案,就是国家不允许民营企业进行正常地融资活动的结果,而国企却可以从银行得到大笔资金扶持。其三,国企凭借垄断地位高价售卖关系国计民生的重要产品,不仅破坏正常的市场经济秩序,更威胁中国经济的健康发展,以石油为例,北京93号汽油价格为7.85元/升,美国汽油平均价折合人民币仅为6.38元/升。高油价危害很大,不仅会增加物流成本,推升所有商品的价格水平,还会加剧通货膨胀,危害经济的健康运行。

有迹象显示,在江朱时代被打破的国企铁饭碗也已经死灰复燃。形式上,国企采用了聘任制、合同制、雇员制等不断变化的各种形式,实际上,这本身就反映出国企内部用人制度的混乱,根本没有真正建立起淘汰竞争机制,有进无出,加之裙带关系泛滥,国企重新变得机构臃肿、效率低下。国企之所以还能够很好地生存,国企员工之所以还能够很滋润地生活,就得益于国企通过垄断地位排挤民营资本,向全民榨取垄断利润。

2,官场腐败

中国的官场腐败已经进入溃烂性的体制性腐败的新时期。中国社科院一份《调查报告》显示:中国政府投入的医疗费用中,80%服务于850万以党政干部为主的群体,只有20%供十几亿老百姓消费。政府“三公”消费更是触目惊心,人民公仆们每年要从全国老百姓口袋里掏出9000亿元满足他们吃喝、出国、坐车等的开销。卫生部副部长黄洁夫的话则反映了官僚群体对民众利益的漠视,他说,全民免费医疗每年需要16000亿,但中国没这个钱。“2006年4月初完成的《全国地方党政部门、国家机关公职人员薪酬和家庭财产调查报告》披露:党政干部已经形成社会特权阶层,其中地厅级以上干部已是官僚特权阶层。官僚特权阶层年收入是当地城市人均年收入的8-25倍,是当地农民人均年收入的25-85倍。如深圳市的地厅级干部的平均财产相当于一个普通市民250年的工资,省级干部的平均财产相当于一个市民300年的工资。此外,在金融、外贸、国土开发、大型工程、证券五大领域中担任主要职务的,有85-90%是高干子女,实际上已形成了官僚资产阶级”。

胡耀邦长子胡德平在微博上说,“我们所有的媒体都充满谎言!没有一句真话,到处吹嘘歌功颂德,我们的官员96%都贪污、包二奶,这样搞很危险。我们欠人民的已太多!不要总是拿人民当傻瓜!奉劝一些人不要过于迷恋权力,卡扎菲满脸鲜血被打死还历历在目……人民不跟我们玩了,我们就玩完了!”

3,分配不公

由于分配不公,中国社会已经严重两极分化。国家统计局数据显示,中国基尼系数在2000年越过0.4的警戒线并逐年攀升,到2004年达到0.465。此后,国家不再公布整个国家的基尼系数,只投机取巧地公布农村基尼系数,但新华社两位研究员判定2010年中国基尼系数已经超过0.5。世界银行报告也显示,中国1%的家庭掌握了全国41.4%的财富,而美国是5%的人口掌握了60%的财富,中国的贫富差距大大超过了美国。另一份数据则更加惊人。2009年6月中国政协十一届常委会会议上,蔡继明委员说,“中国权威部门的一份报告显示,0.4%的人掌握了70%的财富,财富集中度高于美国”。毫无疑问,中国已经成为世界上两极分化最严重的国家。

贫富分化会带来社会动荡的危险。社科院2005年《社会蓝皮书》指出,1993到2003年中国每年“群体性事件”数量由每年1万起激增到6万起,每年参与人数由73万人猛增到307万人。从2003年到2005年,全国共发生群体性事件20万起,参与群众高达1000余万。2010年,中国大陆发生的抗议和骚乱事件已经猛增至18万起。这已经反映出,中国社会动荡正在加剧。

4,人权挑战

中国人权保护方面尚有严重缺陷。一、9亿农民只有土地的使用权,而没有所有权,这意味着他们没有真正的财产权;二、城乡强制拆迁现象普遍,民众经济和居住权益得不到保障;三、各地不断高调打黑,一些地方以破坏法制的形式打黑,甚至公检法联署办公,违背了基本的法制原则;四、一些城市以各种借口驱逐小贩和外地人,城管殴打小贩的现象层出不穷,小贩在城市丧失了人类基本的生存和谋生的权利。

5,国际环境恶化

“重返亚洲”是美国战略重心的一次转移,中国因此承受了巨大的政治和外交压力。在南海问题上,一方面,美国要求各方按照《联合国海洋法公约》寻求解决争端,反对任何一方使用或威胁使用武力,另一方面,美国与越南、菲律宾及东南亚六国实施军演。在经济领域,美国推动和主导“跨太平洋战略经济伙伴关系协议”(TPP),促进亚太地区的贸易自由化,但美国在2011年11月的APEC会议上大力推销TPP,却唯独没有向中国发出邀请。如何避免争端,带领中国真正融入国际社会是新一届政府的难题。

6,既得利益集团

由于政治改革和经济改革不同步,中国在经济迅速发展过程中形成了既得利益集团。既得利益集团就是中国“先富起来”的那部分人,他们主要不是凭借劳动致富,而是凭借与公共权力的亲缘关系而致富。今天,他们已经成为中国社会进一步发展的阻碍。

既得利益集团总是千方百计地维护、扩大自己的利益,如官僚资本常常随意涨价以获取高额利润,甚至与国家行政力量相勾结,动用国家机器来压榨弱势民众,如强制征地、强制拆迁。既得利益集团的利益本来就是依靠权力“寻租”得来的,本质上就是腐败致富。现在,如何改变既得利益集团与民争利的局面,进一步推进中国的改革事业,将成为新一届政府面临的重大挑战。

7,县乡领导直选

列宁说,“只有普遍的、直接的、平等的选举才可以说是民主的选举”。但在马列主义中国,即使最基层的县乡政府及其首长都不是人民直选出来的。宪法规定,“中华人民共和国的一切权力属于人民”。1998年四川省遂宁市步云乡据此直选产生了自己的乡长,出人意料的是,“步云直选”被四川省人大宣布为“违宪”、“违反党组织程序”。民主选举是政治统治合法性的来源,没有民主选举,中国就永远无法解决政治统治合法性这一问题。

8,经济结构调整

在稳健的经济体里面,投资和消费的比例大体上应该是,投资占GDP的1/3,消费占GDP的2/3。这样的比例能够保持经济的平稳可持续发展。如2008年,居民消费占GDP的比重,美国是70.1%,印度是54.7%。中国正好反过来,投资占GDP的50%,消费占GDP的35%。实际上,即便同为出口导向型的韩国、日本、台湾等国家和地区,其国内消费占GDP的比重也都超过了50%。努里尔•鲁比尼曾准确预测美国的次贷危机,被称为“末日博士”,他预计,中国政府如果不进行有效的经济改革,2013年以后中国经济很可能发生经济硬着陆。

改革开放以来的成就与危机,深刻表明中国社会走到了一个转折关头。一方面是随着经济发展带来的社会结构的深刻变化,以及人权的缓慢进步。另一方面是社会矛盾不断激化,如急剧扩大的贫富差距、风起云涌的社会抗议活动、磕磕绊绊的国际关系、既得利益集团的保守固执、官民矛盾的不断升级。所有这些都把我们带回一个老生常谈的话题——政治体制改革已经迫在眉睫。诚如温家宝所说,不改革只有死路一条。只有进行以自由、民主、人权、宪政为核心的改革,中国的道路才能愈走愈光明、愈走愈宽广。中国的大地正在呼唤一位伟大政治家的出现。

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FACEBOOK 粉丝互动终极指南

原文 The Ultimate Guide to Facebook Fan Engagement

尽管FACEBOOK作为个人社交网络已经存在7、8年了,但是作为商用才不过2、3年时间。所以很多企业客户在选择社会化媒体作为宣传和营销平台时总会有这样的困惑:

1. 应该多久Post一次内容?

2. 什么样的内容能够增强与粉丝的互动?

3. 应在什么时候发布企业信息墙的更新?

Buddy Media 基于这些常见问题进对前100名的零售商在2011年6个月内的粉丝互动数据进行了分析研究,解答了以上问题。尽管此次研究的对象主要是零售业,但是研究的结论对不同商业领域的社媒活动有着广泛的意义。

以下是研究结论:

1. 信息发布的最佳时间 晚上8点至早上7点

最佳信息发布时间最好是“非工作时间”–晚上8点到早上7点之间。在非工作繁忙的时段发布信息最容易获得赞或是引发评论。

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2. 最佳发布信息的日期是:星期三

尽管大部分的公共页面每天都有专人定时定量上传或更新内容,但周三和周日的更新更容易增强互动效果。

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3. 每日内容发布的频率: 1到2次

信息墙内容的质量要重于数量。每天更新发布1-2条信息的粉丝互动率要比每天更新3次以上的分析互动率高40%。

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4. 每周更新频率:1-4篇内容

不要以频繁的更新狂轰乱炸粉丝的RSS Feed。事实证明一周发布1-4次内容更新的零售企业比一周更新5次以上的企业粉丝互动率要高71%左右。

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5. 最佳内容长度:140字之内

80字之内的更新会比较长的内容增加66%的粉丝互动率。更为简洁的内容–1-40字之内–能够获取最多的粉丝互动。然而只有5%的零售企业发布的内容更新少于40字,但他们却获得了高于其他86%的粉丝互动率。

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6. 如何引发互动:提问

提问题是引发与粉丝对话的有效方式。提问式的内容更新能增加2倍以上的粉丝评论。

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7. 最佳结构:填空

最缺乏运用的一种技巧反而是最有效的。数据显示填空似的问题更新,如:我喜欢的是。。。比其他非填空似的内容多9倍以上的回复。 只有不到1%的企业使用这种方法。

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8. 赢得交易的关键词:优惠卷 和 直减¥

当粉丝有购买意向时,往往他们寻求更直接的优惠。对前十名的营销关键词的分析显示,内容中含有 “优惠卷“ 或 ”减¥” 字眼的更新最有互动效果。“减¥”获得高于其他55%的粉丝互动率,“优惠券”获得高于平均值39%的粉丝互动率。

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9. 最佳的优惠方式:直接现金折扣

相比打折的力度大小,粉丝更在乎的是自己有没有得到实实在在的实惠。Don’t let the fans do the math. 研究表明,直减¥比 打%折多2倍的粉丝互动率。就算是¥10以下的减价活动也比打折活动高17%的粉丝互动率。

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10. 最佳内容格式:文字

最简单的编排和格式能够获得最多的关注。最有效的两种内容:纯图片 和 纯文字。纯文字的状态更新比其他复杂的内容多94%的粉丝互动。

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The Legency of “Homeless Chic”–From An Online PR View

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/handsome-chinese-vagrant-draws-fans-of-homeless-chic-1915812.html

This might be the last post this semester for my online PR course. I was interested in fashion and I was majoring in PR, therefore I was doing this blog by observing, analyzing and learning the PR tactics in the fashion world. In my last few blogs I talked a lot about the online PR strategies and tactics—the social media tool such as twitter and Facebook; the SEO and SEM; the consumer community organized through blog, bulletin board and websites. They are all very straightforward example of how powerful the internet is to the public. However, several days ago, a very interesting case came into my mind. It might be an unusual explanation on how internet influenced publics as well as “fashion industry”. I’m not sure whether it is a case in point to show that, but at least it inspired my explorative thinking about it.

A photo of a Chinese beggar walking in the street quickly sparked heated discussion since its first appearance on February. The beggar “Brother Sharp” is claimed the most stylish beggar by Chinese netizens. He becomes more and more famous, not only home, but abroad. On Mar. 4, his photo even showed on Britain’s newspaper “The Independent”.

“The Independent” published a photo of him, and described as “a starkly handsome Chinese man walking with a model’s measured gait, and wearing a rag-tag but well co-ordinated overcoat on top of a leather jacket. His eyes peer into the middle distance, in what one fan described as ‘a deep and penetrating way’, and he strides confidently forward.”

More and more people pay attention to the stylish beggar, and compare him with many stylish hot stars worldwide.  He is 5ft 8in, around 35 years old, and always has a cigarette between his fingers. He also appears to have a fondness for women’s clothes, which has only served to fuel his status as a fashion icon. His good looks are reminiscent of popular Asian actors like Takeshi Kaneshiro or the Oscar- nominated Ken Watanabe.

Brother Sharp even become popular in the fashion field and inspired “homeless chic”. The suggestion that homelessness can be cool chimes with a fashion trend that many have considered tasteless: in January, the designer Vivienne Westwood presented a “homeless chic” show in which models were styled to look like rough sleepers, a move prefigured by Ben Stiller’s satirical film Zoolander, which featured a similar show called Derelicte. Two years ago the supermodel Erin Wasson revealed the homeless were her fashion inspiration, saying: “When I… see the homeless, like, I’m like, ‘Oh my God, they’re pulling out, like, crazy looks and they, like, pull shit out of like garbage cans.”

The “Brother Sharp” became famous overnight. He himself may not know what has happened? He has enjoyed a high publicity rate recently because the main media kept updating his news every day. They are digging his identity and his story, helping him to find his family. With the help of these enthusiastic netizens, he finally reunions with his family and unveiled his secret of identity. He used to be a soldier and got award for the flood disaster relief in 1998. One day he witnessed his fiancé dying in a car accident, and he became mentally insane and began begging.

Now it has a happy ending for the story because the whole society gives him so much attention and help. But it makes me thinking about the powerful strength of the internet and the netizen. If they could make an ordinary stranger famous overnight, they could also make something familiar inglorious. In China, we have an old saying that: “The water can help boat float, it can also make it capsize.” The PR online strategies have become more and more popular. However, it usually has high potential of risk when it is highly rewarding and effective. On one hand you hope your favored things to go viral, but on the other hand you don’t want it to get lost of control. Therefore much attention and care should be given to the PR online strategies.  But isn’t this case inspiring our thought on how to make use of the domino’s effect of online communications for reaching audiences and generating resonance?

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Alice in Wonderland Inspired Fahsion Trends

If there is a more enchanting story than Alice in Wonderland, especially for the fashion community at large, we dare you to prove it. Alice in the wonderland not only hit three million spot in box office but also inspired the fashion trends. The Lewis Carroll-penned fantasy’s wildly original world and iconic characters—including a perpetually tardy, pocket watch-wearing White Rabbit, a hookah-smoking Caterpillar, and a shouty Queen of Hearts who’s obsessed with the color red—is so over-the-top outrageous, it’s no wonder this trippy adventure resonates so deeply with designers. Simply put: the colorful epic epitomizes dramatic creativity at its very finest. And while Alice’s influence is always present, this season everyone is focusing on this fabulous tale again, thanks to the impending release of Tim Burton’s take on the iconic tale in Disney’s Alice in Wonderland.

The numerous notable S/S 10 collections that clearly draw inspiration for the film! There were loads of runway examples this season, ranging from the down-the-rabbit-hole optical prints at Versace to the Alice-blue dresses and bow headbands at Luella. Even the White Rabbit’s signature style was represented at Vivienne Westwood via hypnotic crimson hair, pale powdered faces, and madcap styling!

Take your cue from two of London’s hottest young designers right now. For spring, Christopher Kane showed delicate pink and blue gingham-check dresses, made from chiffon and covered in intricate sequins and appliqué patterns. So far, so sweet, you might think, but bear in mind that the collection was inspired by a Texan cult.

Louise Goldin also showed ice-cream parlour shades of lilac, yellow and powder blue, but her complex body-con dresses and directional knitwear were pure sci-fi.

Beware of taking the Alice trend too far. A mad hat is fun for about half-an-hour, for example. Similarly, a pocket watch is just the wrong side of steampunk to be chic. But headbands are very on-trend, and bunny ears never go out of fashion. Just don’t team them with hotpants and a tail; half of Alice’s appeal is her idiosyncratic late-Victorian stuffiness.

Fashion is to catch on trends. Taking the advantage of such crazy popularity of Alice in wonderland, designers are sophisticated with stunt to make their designs in. The hottest words item “Alice in Wonderland” in Google search tell the direction of people’s attention. Does it seem that designers are using SEO ranking to direct their fashion design in order to cater the public?

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LVMH vs. Google

Pictures from: 3g.scol.com.cn/bbs/dispbbs.asp?boardid=4&Id=30171

courtesy from 3g.scol.com.cn/bbs/dispbbs.asp?boardid=4&Id=30171

If you search for “Louis Vuitton” on Google’s British Web site, it turns up an advertisement for “Designer Handbags 70% off” —which really pissed off LVMH, the French luxury goods conglomerate that owns the brand.

Not only are the handbags fake, but when unauthorized parties buy its trademarks as keywords to generate search ads, its own cost of using those brand names on Google soars.

LVMH and a number of other companies want Google to stop the practice, and a European court ruling expected next Tuesday is to be the biggest test of its legality. Analysts say millions of euros are at stake, in a case with significant implications for the use of the Internet as a marketing tool for brand owners and as a moneymaker for Google.

Google has faced similar lawsuits in the United States, but it has settled some of them, and no clear precedents have been established. So legal experts say the decision by the European Court of Justice in Luxembourg will be watched closely around the world.

“It’s going to be the first time we’re going to get a high court reviewing the legality of these kinds of business practices,”

said David Bernstein, a trademark expert at the law firm of Debevoise & Plimpton in New York.

Google, which declined to comment in advance of the decision, says AdWords, its search advertising system, complies with trademark law because it blocks advertisers in Europe from using others’ brand names in the actual texts of sponsored links. Google also removes links to counterfeiters’ sites, like the one advertising discounted handbags, when brand owners or consumers complain.

But the company’s policy on sales of keywords to third parties varies by country. In France, court rulings have required Google to block the sale of such keywords at the request of the trademark owner. In other countries, including Britain and the United States, Google has moved to liberalize the practice. In the United States, Google even allows advertisers to use a rival’s brand name in the text of an ad in some cases.

Pierre Godé, a LVMH board member and adviser to the chairman, Bernard Arnault said

“Under trademark law anywhere in the world, brand owners have the right to stop third parties from using their names. Why make an exception for the digital world?”

Neither Google nor LVMH has said how much money is at stake, but hints have emerged in a separate lawsuit that began in Britain and that has also been referred to the European court. In that case Interflora, the online florists’ network, sued the retailer Marks & Spencer, which had bought the Interflora keyword on Google as a way to promote the Marks & Spencer flower delivery service.

http://blog.interflora.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/interflora-marks-spencer.gif

here is an example of Marks and Spencer bidding on the wordmark ‘Interflora’ which is a registered trade mark.

Interflora said that when Google loosened its trademark policy in Britain two years ago, making it easier for third parties to buy others’ brands as keywords, the cost of buying its own name rose from 2 pence per click to as much as 28 pence, or 42 cents, per click, costing it an additional $750,000 in the first year.

This dispute between Google and LVMH attracted my attention because, as a PR person, we are now highly engaged in the intangible “online campaign”. Search Engine Marketing is a result of Google’s SEO (Search Engine Optimization). The ranking of the keywords search on Google is also an important PR measurement. We are trying every best to crank up keywords ranking on Google for our company or client, which can help bring traffic to the websites or make our search result more impressive. However, Google’s advertising system can bring issue. How do you think about the challenge of doing PR online? Do you have any suggestion to avoid these issues?

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Oh My Urban Outfitters!

It is a good day and thankfully the sunshine comes back to Kent this weekend. I was sitting at the window, enjoying the beautiful sunshine with a cup of tea while my roommate was shouting surprisingly. I was shocked and ran into her room. “Wass up, Yingying?” I asked. “Come on and see, I just got an email from Urban Outfitters and it said it is free-shipping this weekend! Sounds extremely cool hah? It’s really a good deal.” She almost screamingly replied me.

Most young people are not strange with Urban Outfitters. I will refresh your minds with some background information. Urban Outfitters originated as “The Free People’s Store” in 1970 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, focusing on “funky” fashion and household products. Shortly thereafter the owner and now Chairman, Richard Hayne, changed the name to Urban Outfitters. The product line has evolved from vintage, bohemian, retro, hipster, ironically humorous, kitschy apparel and furniture to include luxury brands and several designer collaborations.

Urban outfitters seek to create “a differential shopping experience, which creates an emotional bond with the 18 to 30 year old target customer we serve.” Once you log on its official websites, you’ll be attracted by its deliberately designed web pages and funky style. Besides the shopping function, it also has a blog page which is like a daily fashion magazine where you can check out the fashion trends by categorized cities, topics, archives or other related blog roll. Most of the contents are voluntarily edited by their customer. It was like a social media for those who has similar interest or taste to share and exchange ideas. You can also subscribe this blog and get daily email about BIZ in UO. And more conveniently, once you have shopped online, they will ask you to register with your email address. So they will email you the deal and offering to keep you informed and back to their shops.

Moreover, on the top of its web pages, there is a longest scroll bar which can help highlight the 23 different windows of content UO serves up to its fans. For example, they got Blog, Features, Music, Photos, Twitter, Facebook, Video and contests. On their Facebook fans page, they got 182,797 fans in total. By doing so, they could keep posting latest news in video, photos, collections and deals. I also found its twitter account with 104,118 followers, which shows that UO is doing a good job with these social media for its public relations. They use all these social media as a direct drive of traffic for its official websites. And it turned out to be a great success due to the effective use of social media for Urban Outfitters as they unveiled record of fourth-quarter results: 91.6 percent increase in net income and 15.8 percent increase in sales. I’m afraid no one could do a better job than UO in the online strategic campaign.

And now, they are working on their new label in bridal business. Urban hasn’t quite figured out what the new bridester business will encompass, but it will start online before the physical stores open. Urban Inc.’s CEO says his bridal attire will be “heirlooms, to be passed on from one generation to the next,” which is a great way to convince brides to purchase an exorbitantly priced dress they’ll (hopefully) only have the chance to wear once.

I support their expansion to the new business area because I’m kind of loyal fan of Urban Outfitters like many other young people. I can find a sense of identity in its corporate culture and I could feel involved in their social community. No matter from Facebook or Twitter, I was not only informed with their funky trends but also exchange my opinion with those who have the similar taste with me. I’m just thinking about wearing their grown for wedding must be a cool thing. What do you think?

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SM & PR for Shabby Apple

It’s been a long time since I heard about the name of Shabby Apple from my friends. I quickly Googled it and was just curious about Shabby Apple’s successful approach to fashion PR and social media. What I found most striking is the mix of social responsible, global feminism executed through a hyper-feminine fashion lens – or, to put it more plainly, a really great company who also happens to sell really cute dresses at affordable price.

Shabby Apple launches six lines of dresses a year and is a women-owned and operated socially responsible company. The company designs women’s dresses, feminine fitness wear, a maternity line, a Shabby Baby line of dresses for girls up to eight years old, a preteen line for girls eight to twelve.

Owners Emily McCormick and Athelia Woolley design dresses that don’t require a cardigan or camisole to be comfortable, and are committed to both empowering women through fashion as well as providing women the opportunity to achieve financial freedom. To this end, Shabby Apple donates 5% of proceeds to Unitus, a non-profit organization in the micro finance industry, to help alleviate global poverty for millions of women and their families.

The company launched in December 2006 and at first leveraged Emily’s PR and marketing background to build the brand. Early public relations efforts centered on the local DC market where Emily is based, including events, morning shows and local press.

“We started with TV, and then found out that print was more successful than TV, but what has been most effective has been to focus the majority of our efforts online through blogger outreach,” explained Athelia. Several recent blog may drive up to 12k hits to the Shabby Apple site in a month.

After about a year and a half of managing the PR outreach in house, Shabby Apple decided it was time to hire for PR. Emily and Athelia put out an ad in guru.com, reached out to the Standford Alumni web site (Athelia is an alumnae) and ultimately chose Roxanne Truesdell from Rondstadt PR , a referral from a friend. “It was the best decision we ever made,” said Athelia. “I don’t always know the correct way to approach media, and time wise. With the web site, production and photo shoots, PR would slip to background because we didn’t have the time.” When evaluating prospective PR practitioners, Emily and Athelia looked primarily for internet experience. Athelia explained, “A lot of PR agencies spend lot of money on events, and the return isn’t nearly as impactful as a blog post, which takes less effort and money.”

Evaluating Fashion Bloggers

Some of the time Shabby Apple are contacted directly by bloggers and other times coverage is the result of a proactive pitch. Interestingly, Shabby Apple employs a blogger metric system where they evaluate the site traffic and use that to decide which product to send out for review. Compete.com is used to search for unique visitors and if the blog is unavailable, the next alternative is to take a look at the Google Page Rank.

Social Media – Facebook, Twitter

Shabby Apple has been on Twitter (@shabbyapple) for years, but only recently have they dedicated specific resources to daily management and engagement.  In addition to the Twitter account and Facebook Fan Page, the site does have share buttons and Shabby Apple runs their own blog. Affiliate marketing, a fit to flatter widget, and email (save 10% when you sign up!) round out their online marketing strategy.

 Athelia explained

“In fashion, it’s more about branding than product. Anything you do to make people feel like the brand is more a part of their life is key. Facebook allows us to go to where our customers are, which is a lot more effective than expecting them to come to our web site.”

I love the fact that all the dresses on the site “fit generously,” what a welcome change from the norm! What do you think of Shabby Apple’s approach to fashion PR? Are you more likely to support a company with a conscious?

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